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International Monetary Fund predicts India will grow at 7.3% in 2018-’19

International Monetary Fund predicts India will grow at 7.3% in 2018-’19

The Economic Counsellor and Director of Research Department at the IMF, Maurice Obstfeld disclosed the Fund's new projection for global economic growth.

Global trade is projected to expand by 4.2 per cent this year, six tenths less than expected in July and almost a full point lower than the forecast in April.

Although the newly projected rate is same as last year's rate of 3.7 percent, this growth exceeds that achieved in any of the years between 2012 and 2016, and it occurs as many economies have reached or are nearing full employment and as earlier deflationary fears have dissipated.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin is expected to meet with worldwide finance officials in Indonesia this week during IMF and World Bank summits, though as of Monday he had no meetings scheduled with Chinese officials - as reported by Reuters. The Trump administration has penalized almost half of all imports from China and has threatened more for the other half.

Output could fall by more than 1.6 per cent in China and over 0.9 per cent in the USA next year, according to the IMF's models. And, as with the USA, the International Monetary Fund left its estimates for China's growth for 2018 unchanged at 6.6%.

The near-term impact of a full-fledged trade war on growth in China will be almost double that of the United States, according to the IMF's estimates.

The euro area will expand 2 per cent this year, down 0.2 point from July, as a result of weaker-than-expected growth in the first half of the year.

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has forecast the GDP growth in Azerbaijan by 1.3 percent in 2018.

China is trying to move away from its long-time reliance on heavy industry and manufactured exports towards a growth model based more on domestic consumption by its increasingly wealthy populace.

The UK economy is expected to grow by 1.4% this year - down from April's prediction of 1.6% - while predicted growth for 2019 remains at 1.5%, a slowdown from 1.7% in 2017.

It explained that its downgrades to global growth also reflect predictions of a slower expansion in the eurozone, as well as turbulence in a number of emerging market economies such as Argentina, Turkey, and Venezuela.

It also said inflation in India is on the rise, estimated at 3.6 per cent in fiscal year 2017/18 and projected at 4.7 per cent in fiscal year 2018/19, compared with 4.5 per cent in fiscal year 2016/17, amid accelerating demand and rising fuel prices. "In several key economies, moreover, growth is being supported by policies that seem unsustainable over the long term".

Core inflation, which excludes volatile items such as energy, will vary from country to country, it added.


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