Economy

Despite growth projections, International Monetary Fund says Nigeria's economy may 'not be so lucky'

Despite growth projections, International Monetary Fund says Nigeria's economy may 'not be so lucky'

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised up its forecast for the 2018 Turkish economic growth to 4.4 percent, but its 2019 forecast was down to 4 percent for 2019 in its latest World Economic Outlook.

It forecasts the Irish economy to grow at 4.5% this year and 4% next year.

The report refers to "waning support for global integration".

While iPhones aren't physically exported from Ireland, the gadget giant's intellectual property is based here, which has led the authors of a report into smartphones and global trade to estimate that in value-added terms, iPhone exports accounted for 25 per cent of the Irish economy's growth in 2017.

Global trade is also expected to continue growing at a faster pace than global growth, reversing the trend of the earlier years.

But IMF chief economist Maurice Obstfeld dismisses the idea that the steps taken by the U.S. can reduce the deficit. The forecasts for this year and next have been raised.

The government here said it expects Asia's fourth-largest economy to advance 3 percent in 2018.

Mr Obstfeld describes the upgrade from 3.7% as "substantial".

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The IMF predicts projected that GDP growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will increase gradually during 2018-19 to 3.4% and 3.7%, respectively, as commodity prices rise.

"The IMF raised its USA forecast by two tenths for both years, to 2.9% for 2018 and 2.7% for 2019, which follows big upward revisions in the October report, due to the tax impact". The choices governments, central banks, and regulators make now will determine how long this moment lasts.

Obstfeld said there was more of a "phoney war" between the United States and China than a return to the widespread use of tariffs in the Great Depression, but that there were signs that even the threat of protectionism was already harming growth.

However, he said these trends were more due to technological change than to trade, and that the recent tariffs and bilateral trade negotiations announced by the U.S. would do little to help the multilateral or overall United States external account deficit.

The IMF would like to see countries like Canada boost their potential growth rates.

Among developing countries, he says those that depend on exporting commodities need to diversify their economies.

Debt levels - private and government - are very high.

International Monetary Fund economist Dirk Muir said the New Zealand government is also weighing up where there has been underinvestment in infrastructure and that there are ways around that, such as shifting spending into public transport to address a problem like traffic congestion, as opposed to building a new road. The eurozone, which emerged only slowly from its 2011-2012 debt crisis, is expected to benefit from continued low rates.